Favoring AUD strength against NZD rather than USD – TDS

Economists at TD Securities analyze AUD outlook after the RBA hikes 25 bps.

ANZ/NZD to target next resistance level at 1.108

The 25 bps hike today favours short-term AUD/NZD upside given compressing rates differential between the RBA and the RBNZ. 

With the RBNZ flagging that it is done with its hiking cycle, a hawkish RBA will bode well for more AUD strength on RV basis.

AUD/NZD has broken through the downtrend since the Sep'22 highs, and we see it targeting the next resistance level at 1.108 (Feb High), another 1.2% away from current levels. 

We prefer to express AUD strength against NZD rather than USD given the USD resilience amid firmer US data. Post decision, the lift in AUD/USD only brings us back to the familiar 0.660/0.680 range, which has been established since early March this year.