USD is on the cusp of turning lower – TDS

The USD declined last week, adding to a string of losses seen over the month of June. Economists at TD Securities analyze the greenback outlook.

USD will drop later in H2

We continue to think the USD is on the cusp of turning lower but have a stronger conviction that it will drop later in H2. 

In the short term, we need the market to validate our out-of-consensus call that the Fed is done and disinflation is in the works. For now, markets are still pricing in a >70% of a July hike so we need a few data catalysts to price this out in the month ahead.