EUR/PLN: Incumbent government to be replaced, positive signal for the Zloty – Commerzbank

Poland held elections. In the view of economists at Commerzbank, the election results are all-around PLN-positive.

No reason for the FX market to price out PLN euphoria again

It looks very much as if an opposition coalition might be able to gain the majority. That is a very positive signal for the Zloty!

As PiS is the strongest party following the elections they might claim the right to be asked to form a government first. As long as the civic coalition sticks together there is no reason for the FX market to price out today’s PLN euphoria again.

On the other hand: the damage the PiS government inflicted is ongoing. The people it appointed are still in office, also in the central bank. It is unorthodox – to put it mildly – monetary policy no doubt did damage to the Zloty. Call me naïve, but I hope that a change in government will bring a change for the better on that front too.