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10 Dec 2024
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD pulls back from $32.00 near monthly highs
- Silver price retreats from Monday's monthly high of $32.28.
- The price of the grey metal found support following news of potential economic stimulus measures from China.
- The stronger US Dollar weighs on demand for dollar-denominated Silver.
Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats from $32.00 per troy ounce during the European session on Tuesday. However, the price of the grey metal received support from news of potential economic stimulus from China.
Chinese policymakers, through the Politburo, outlined plans for a “moderately loose” monetary policy and a “more proactive” fiscal stimulus for the coming year. This marks a shift from the cautious approach of the past decade and has boosted the demand outlook for metals in the world’s largest consumer of raw materials.
Chinese President Xi Jinping stated on Tuesday, "China has full confidence in achieving this year's economic target." He emphasized that China will continue to serve as the largest engine of global economic growth and asserted that there would be no winners in tariff wars, trade wars, or tech wars.
Silver prices also benefited from growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again this month. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 89.5% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points on December 18, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
However, the strengthening of the US Dollar (USD) is making dollar-denominated Silver less affordable for buyers with foreign currencies, dampening its demand. Trades adopt caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.