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31 Dec 2014
Chinese import/export growth likely slowing - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts noted events commencing for 2015 and highlighted the China Trade Balance (Thurs 8 Jan).
Key Quotes:
“The December trade data will be the last clean numbers before the Chinese New Year distortions of Jan/Feb, and is likely to reveal a continued slowing in both export and import growth”.
“Although export growth fell from 11% Y/Y in Oct to just below 5% Y/Y in Nov, we expect growth to remain positive despite a negative European backdrop as the softer yuan and US growth provide an offset”.
“For imports there is a greater risk that growth deteriorates further driven by sharp falls in oil prices and weaker iron ore prices. With merchandise exports near the highs and imports set to drop, the trade balance is likely to remain near the record level hit last month”.
Key Quotes:
“The December trade data will be the last clean numbers before the Chinese New Year distortions of Jan/Feb, and is likely to reveal a continued slowing in both export and import growth”.
“Although export growth fell from 11% Y/Y in Oct to just below 5% Y/Y in Nov, we expect growth to remain positive despite a negative European backdrop as the softer yuan and US growth provide an offset”.
“For imports there is a greater risk that growth deteriorates further driven by sharp falls in oil prices and weaker iron ore prices. With merchandise exports near the highs and imports set to drop, the trade balance is likely to remain near the record level hit last month”.