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1 Apr 2015
Treasuries: risks skewed to the downside – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With treasuries closing the bearish gap and seeing a barrier at 129-00, Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, believes that the next move would be lower towards 127-19 onto 126-18 and 126-00.
Key Quotes
“Risks remain skewed to the downside after the break above the trendline on the yield chart and the formation of a bearish outside session on the futures price chart, which, contrary to Bunds charts, indicated downside risks for the market.”
“The breakaway gap at 128-26 was closed, but the 129-00 resistance proved to cap further rallies, as was expected. My bias was that there may be another push higher towards 129-00, but ultimately decline to 127-19+ onto 126-18+ and 126-00.”
“The push higher has already occurred. With level unbroken, it is now time to expect price decline.”
“A sustained break above 129-09 would require the view re-assessed, while a break above 129-29 cancels the view+.”
“Strategy: keep short from 128-29+ for 127-31 onto 127-00, stop 129-29”
Key Quotes
“Risks remain skewed to the downside after the break above the trendline on the yield chart and the formation of a bearish outside session on the futures price chart, which, contrary to Bunds charts, indicated downside risks for the market.”
“The breakaway gap at 128-26 was closed, but the 129-00 resistance proved to cap further rallies, as was expected. My bias was that there may be another push higher towards 129-00, but ultimately decline to 127-19+ onto 126-18+ and 126-00.”
“The push higher has already occurred. With level unbroken, it is now time to expect price decline.”
“A sustained break above 129-09 would require the view re-assessed, while a break above 129-29 cancels the view+.”
“Strategy: keep short from 128-29+ for 127-31 onto 127-00, stop 129-29”