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1 Apr 2015
MXN remains undervalued – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of analysts at BAML, the Mexican peso remains undervalued, recommending as a consequence shorting both USD/MXN and EUR/MXN.
Key Quotes
“The recovery of economic activity continues in Mexico, driven by non-oil exports to the US and helped by private investment and consumption. Exports and private expenditure contributed the most to GDP growth in 4Q14, but public expenditure was a drag, somewhat unexpectedly”.
“To maintain the relative monetary policy with the US and minimize the risks of portfolio outflows, Banxico is ready to hike rates around the time the Fed hikes. But since the output gap will likely remain negative throughout 2015, and inflation is expected to remain relatively close to Banxico’s target, we expect Banxico will wait to see the Fed’s flight plan before hiking”.
“We stay bullish on the Mexican peso. For investors, we recommend being short USD/MXN and short EUR/MXN. The MXN is undervalued in real trade-weighted terms according to Compass. Banxico also considers the exchange rate to be undervalued and has stepped up its rule-based intervention, promising to sell about $3bn by June 2015. It can extend the program if deemed necessary”.
Key Quotes
“The recovery of economic activity continues in Mexico, driven by non-oil exports to the US and helped by private investment and consumption. Exports and private expenditure contributed the most to GDP growth in 4Q14, but public expenditure was a drag, somewhat unexpectedly”.
“To maintain the relative monetary policy with the US and minimize the risks of portfolio outflows, Banxico is ready to hike rates around the time the Fed hikes. But since the output gap will likely remain negative throughout 2015, and inflation is expected to remain relatively close to Banxico’s target, we expect Banxico will wait to see the Fed’s flight plan before hiking”.
“We stay bullish on the Mexican peso. For investors, we recommend being short USD/MXN and short EUR/MXN. The MXN is undervalued in real trade-weighted terms according to Compass. Banxico also considers the exchange rate to be undervalued and has stepped up its rule-based intervention, promising to sell about $3bn by June 2015. It can extend the program if deemed necessary”.