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30 Sep 2013
Flash: USD, all eyes on Jobs numbers - Societe Generale
FXstreet.com (London) - For the USD, this is an important week with the data which the Fed is most keen on. Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale comments.
Key Quotes:
"If we can get away from the shenanigans in Washington, the big economic focus of the week should be the US jobs report on Friday".
"Now that failure to taper in September is replaced by (partly politics-induced) pessimism about the economy, we are going to be highly sensitive to economic trends. So I thought it might be worthwhile to refer you to this from the Chicago Fed on estimating the trend din employment growth".
“For the unemployment rate to decline, the U.S. economy needs to generate above-trend job growth. We currently estimate trend employment growth to be around 80,000 jobs per month, and we expect it to decline over the remainder of the decade, due largely to changing labor force demographics and slower population growth”.
"Last month's payroll increase was 169k, the average of the last 12 months 184k, 24 months 185k and 36 months 171k".
"So, the US economy is persistently generating about twice as many jobs a month as it needs to, to keep the unemployment rate steady".
"For now, all we can do is sit and watch the politicians, but when the dust settles, we'll get back to a modest US recovery with solid foundations, and ludicrously easy monetary policy".
Key Quotes:
"If we can get away from the shenanigans in Washington, the big economic focus of the week should be the US jobs report on Friday".
"Now that failure to taper in September is replaced by (partly politics-induced) pessimism about the economy, we are going to be highly sensitive to economic trends. So I thought it might be worthwhile to refer you to this from the Chicago Fed on estimating the trend din employment growth".
“For the unemployment rate to decline, the U.S. economy needs to generate above-trend job growth. We currently estimate trend employment growth to be around 80,000 jobs per month, and we expect it to decline over the remainder of the decade, due largely to changing labor force demographics and slower population growth”.
"Last month's payroll increase was 169k, the average of the last 12 months 184k, 24 months 185k and 36 months 171k".
"So, the US economy is persistently generating about twice as many jobs a month as it needs to, to keep the unemployment rate steady".
"For now, all we can do is sit and watch the politicians, but when the dust settles, we'll get back to a modest US recovery with solid foundations, and ludicrously easy monetary policy".