US retail sales likely expanded by 0.2% m/m in November – RBS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Brian Daingerfield, FX Trading Strategist at RBS, suggests that the US November retail sales data is expected to show a 0.2% m/m growth in headline sales.

Key Quotes

“Anecdotal evidence this month is somewhat mixed – once again, mild winter weather may have weighed on apparel sales, but online sales appear to have registered a strong start to the holiday season. Personal consumption has been a bright spot in 2015 and is likely to again register strong growth in the fourth quarter.”

“The underlying fundamentals supporting consumption, including an ongoing recovery in the labor market and lower oil prices supportive of discretionary spending, remain squarely in place. But the strong gains in income have not fully translated into stronger spending – the savings rate, at 5.6%, is at its highest level since 2012.”

“The latest U of Michigan confidence index is due as well, and our economists expect a modest decline. Alongside the headline index we will be closely watching the survey measures of inflation expectations after Chair Yellen referenced the U of Michigan survey of inflation expectations specifically in her December 3rd speech, noting that the series “has lately edged below its typical range in recent years.”