UK: Unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.6% - TDS

Today’s UK labour market data is the last before the BoE meeting and IR in early August and analysts at TDS are looking for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.6%.

Key Quotes

“The labour market data may be an important factor for the BoE this year, insofar as the health of the labour market and wage growth in particular will help to determine the strength of consumer spending. We look for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.6%, in line with consensus, and for headline wage growth to slip to 1.7% 3m/y (mkt 1.8%) as the outsized February gain falls out of the 3m MA. We’ll also be watching jobless claims closely, which posted their largest 3m increase since 2011 last month. If the claimant count begins to tick higher in June then that suggests that the headline u-rate could begin to worsen in the next couple of months as well.”