NOK expected to remain strong – Danske Bank

The prospects for the Norwegian Krone remain constructive for the time being, according to Mathias Mogensen, Analyst at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“In the Scandi region, we are notably cautious entering new EUR/NOK shorts in the current environment of fragile risk sentiment, high NIBOR fixings, elevated oil prices and more stretched positioning”.

“We continue to see long NOK/SEK as a better way to express a bullish NOK view as this provides some insulation against souring global risk sentiment. Also, we still see a case for Scandi divergence with a heightened risk that the Swedish housing issue will get worse still”.

“We stress that our fundamental case for a lower EUR/NOK in 3M and beyond remains intact as Norges Bank starts a hiking cycle. A key trigger for considering to re-enter EUR/NOK shorts would be a turn in risk sentiment, e.g. driven by a stabilisation in PMIs in coming months and/or the US engaging in trade talks”.