ECB: Focus on the softer macro data - TDS

The April ECB meeting should be more of a placeholder than a place for new revelations, with no need for another change in policy language after the change in March, and no new staff forecasts until June with which to assess the impact of recent soft data, suggests the research team at TDS.

Key Quotes

“The deterioration in the macro data over the last few weeks has led to a number of questions about the strength of Eurozone growth. So with the ECB highly unlikely to divulge anything new about its QE plans beyond September, we think the focus will lie on how the ECB characterises the softer macro data. While the last several ECB meetings have seen Draghi playing the role of cheerleader, talking up the growth prospects for the Eurozone and the ECB's increasing confidence in the inflation outlook, we think that he may have to switch to a more defensive tone at this month's meeting, defending the ECB's upbeat view on growth against a deterioration in the data that now places our 18Q1 growth tracking well below the ECB's own forecast.”