USD: 94-96 range likely to persist - Westpac

According to Richard Franulovich, Head of FX Strategy at Westpac, 94-96 DXY range in place since mid-June likely to persist and September is brimming with risks and seems more propitious for a meaningful break.

Key Quotes

“The Fed likely follows through on its  upgraded assessment of the economy from “solid” to “strong” with an assertive message that leans hawkish rather than dovish (Sep 26).”

“The administration should make a call on the threat of a 25% tariff on $200bn in Chinese exports in Sep. Section 301 hearings are slated for Aug 20-23 and submission of final comments due Sep 5.”

“US political risks run high too; midterm fever usually takes hold from Labor Day (Sep 2), Trump’s govt shutdown threats  come to a head with appropriation bills keeping govt open expiring Sep 30, while the Mueller probe is reportedly planning to release its findings in the obstruction of justice inquiry Sep/Oct.”

“Underlying fundamental USD uptrend intact but risks abound, not least because positioning is very long and data surprise indices are slipping.”