What to expect from the October US jobs report - ING

James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, offers a sneak peek at what to expect from the October US jobs report due later this Friday at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“Labour demand remains strong and with a lack of spare workers, pay pressure is rising. This will keep the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates over the coming 12 months

For what it is worth, we are forecasting payrolls growth of 200,000, but to be honest, anything could happen – the range of economist forecasts is 105,000 up to 253,000, according to Bloomberg.

Pay rates have been grinding higher, but we expect to see a real breakthrough this month. The annual rate of wage growth is set to push above 3% year-on-year for the first time since April 2009. In fact, we expect to see a 0.3% month-on-month, 3.2% YoY outcome. 

 We look for the jobless rate to drop to 3.6%, which would be the lowest rate since November 1969. Underemployment is also likely to fall in this strong growth environment at a time when the participation rate in the jobs market is stagnant.”