US: Has temporary employment peaked? - NBF

Krishen Rangasamy, analyst at National Bank Financial, explains that the January’s employment reports in the US were much better than expected as the establishment survey showed 304K gains thanks in part to cyclical sectors.

Key Quotes

“Impacts of the government shutdown were visible in the household survey via an uptick in the number of unemployed persons to 6.5 million. Unlike the establishment survey, the household survey classifies as unemployed those who are temporarily out of work due to a shutdown-related furlough. That makes the household survey’s +237K employment print (after removing the “population control effect”) all the more impressive.”

“One blemish from employment reports, however, is the fact that temporary employment (a good leading indicator) was roughly flat.”

“Temporary employment, which hit a peak last October, has been treading water for the last three months.”