US: Focus on CPI this week - NBF

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, the release of the consumer price index for January will attract the most attention as far as US markets are concerned.

Key Quotes

“Headline prices could have increased only modestly in the month with gasoline again acting as a drag. This, combined with a negative base effect, may lead to a four-tick decline of the year-on-year rate to 1.5%. The annual core inflation rate, meanwhile, could have increased 0.2% in January, allowing the 12-month figure to decline one tick to 2.1%.”

“In other news, industrial production may have cooled slightly in January as output in the manufacturing sector likely eased following December’s stellar result. The mining sector could also act as a drag if falling commodity prices and a lower rig count in the month are any guide.”

“The December retail sales report, which was delayed by the government shutdown, will also come out. We expect headline sales to have continued to grow based on leading indicators showing good sales during the holiday season. That said, slumping gasoline prices could weigh on gasoline stations receipt and limit the pace of expansion, especially in the ex-auto category. Finally, January’s iteration of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be available.”