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20 May 2014
EZ bonds sell-off, but demand to re-emerge – BAML
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Ralf Preusser, Rates Strategist at BAML explained the sell-off in the EZ government bonds.
Key Quotes:
"When assessing last week's sell-off in euro area peripheral government bonds, two facts are worth pointing out: (1) peripheral markets continue to trade in line with their ratings, (2) viewing spreads on a relative rather than absolute basis shows the periphery at the cheapest levels year-to-date after the sell-off."
"This leads us to conclude that: (1) it will be very difficult for the periphery to sell-off in isolation; (2) at current yield levels in Bund and USTs, we would expect demand for the periphery to re-emerge. However, after stopping out of our peripheral long last week, we are reluctant to re-establish overweights ahead of the European parliament elections and prior to an ECB meeting where high hopes risk being disappointed."
Key Quotes:
"When assessing last week's sell-off in euro area peripheral government bonds, two facts are worth pointing out: (1) peripheral markets continue to trade in line with their ratings, (2) viewing spreads on a relative rather than absolute basis shows the periphery at the cheapest levels year-to-date after the sell-off."
"This leads us to conclude that: (1) it will be very difficult for the periphery to sell-off in isolation; (2) at current yield levels in Bund and USTs, we would expect demand for the periphery to re-emerge. However, after stopping out of our peripheral long last week, we are reluctant to re-establish overweights ahead of the European parliament elections and prior to an ECB meeting where high hopes risk being disappointed."