US recession risks have eased significantly after being elevated mid-2019 – ANZ

Analysts at ANZ Bank argued that US recession risks have eased significantly after being elevated mid-2019.

Key notes

"This in part reflects the Fed easing policy to an accommodative position. This has contributed to a return to a positive yield curve."

"The domestic fundamentals remain solid and there has been a welcome lift in housing activity. The latter should have positive knock-on effects for industries like manufacturing, retail and financial services."

"We remain wary about conditions in the manufacturing sector, which are currently similar to that of previous instances when the broader economy was in recession. That said, prospects for manufacturing should improve on the back of the US-China Phase I agreement and the pickup in housing activity."