AUD/USD holds onto recovery gains above 0.6600 ahead of Aussie trade data

• AUD/USD registers four-day winning streak.
• US dollar bears catch a breath amid upbeat data, political optimism, coronavirus fears still loom.
• Few more central banks joined/signaled the rate cut trajectory.
• Economic calendar, qualitative catalysts will be followed for fresh impulse.

Following a three-day recovery from the multi-year low, AUD/USD steps forward to Thursday’s Asian session with the same zeal while taking rounds to 0.6623. Although coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to spread outside China, recovery in the US data and risk reset after the rate cuts from the RBA and the Fed seem to have helped the Aussie. Traders will now keep eyes on Australia’s January month trade balance for immediate direction.

Risk reset or silence after the storm?

With rising fatalities, COVID-19 continues to push global central banks towards further rate cuts on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada (BOC) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) were the latest to announce a surprise 50 basis points (bps) cut to their base rate.

Even so, the market’s risk tone seems to have recovered amid hopes of no further actions from the policymakers, at least for now, after the recent rate cuts from the RBA and the Federal Reserve.

Increasing odds of Joe Biden to become the Democratic Party's nominee for the Presidential elections have also contributed to the US stocks’ recovery and added to the risk reset.

That said, the US 10-year treasury yields also recovered from the record low of 1.090% to 1.038% whereas Wall Street benchmarks also marked noticeable gains, nearly 4.0% each, by the end of their trading on Wednesday.

Also, the US dollar (USD) also bounced off the four-week low while snapping the four-day losing streak. Better than forecast numbers of the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, as well as ADP Employment Change (despite a huge downward revision to the prior), seem to have contributed to the greenback’s recovery.

Moving on, the Aussie Trade Balance, Imports and Exports for January will be the immediate catalysts to watch. While the headlines trade balance is likely to portray the coronavirus impact with 4800M mark versus 5223M prior, weakness in Imports and Exports from 2.0% and 1.0% respective priors could be an added reason for the Aussie buyers to be skeptical.

Technical Analysis

A lower high formation below 21-day SMA level near 0.6645 raises doubts on the pair’s recent run-up, which in turn highlights the importance of 0.6585 and 0.6550/45 rest-points during the U-turn. Even on the break of 0.6645, the early-February low near 0.6660 can question the buyers.